State Budget

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LAO Doesn’t Think “No Pay/No Say” Applies to the UC Budget

Byuclafaculty

The Legislative Analyst has released his analysis of the Brown budget proposal. It generally follows the polite format of not being to assertive about risks, etc. It actually suggests a somewhat brighter economic outlook than the governor’s budget was based on. However, it does not fundamentally challenge his numbers. You can find the analysis at http://lao.ca.gov/reports/2011/bud/budget_overview/budget_overview_011211.pdf Of special interest to readers of this blog are comments made about the higher ed elements of the budget. These comments are reproduced below. However, the LAO continues to assume that good public policy is for the legislature, while cutting the higher ed budget,…

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Come July 1, UCOP and the Regents Better Have a Plan B

Byuclafaculty

As appeared more and more likely when the Brown budget proposal was being leaked out, a critical part of the plan involves getting voters to approve an extension of temporary tax increases that were originally approved in Feb. 2009. An added complication – more political than legal – is that the income tax increase has expired. So withholding from paychecks has dropped and would be restarted retroactively if such a measure were passed. This fact will add to the argument that the ballot measure is a tax “increase” rather than an “extension.” Republicans have been increasing emphatic that they will…

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Mystery Phrasing: Budget Calls for Minimizing Tuition and Enrollment Impacts But What Does That Mean?

Byuclafaculty

Excerpt below in italics from the UC portion of the governor’s proposed budget, page 150. See earlier blog entry for link to budget. What does the statement mean? Minimizing tuition and enrollment impacts is not the same thing as averting them (or trying to prohibit them). Targeted Reductions — A decrease of $500 million in 2011‑12 to reflect necessaryfunding reductions to help resolve the budget deficit. These reductions are intendedto minimize fee and enrollment impacts on students by targeting actions that lowerthe costs of instruction and administration. The Administration will work withthe Office of the President and the Regents, as…

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Budget Fallout Begins

Byuclafaculty

Not surprisingly, the budget released by Jerry Brown has produced responses. The prior post contains UC President Yudof’s letter of disappointment. The Brown strategy is to put tax extensions on the ballot before June. Normally, given the late date, putting something on the ballot would require a 2/3 vote and the Democrats – while a majority – do not have 2/3. Republicans have now announced they will not provide the missing votes. There has been a hint of some way of avoiding the need for a 2/3 vote by modifying a proposition that was previously passed. Whether the legal issues…

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Preliminary Overview of the Brown Budget

Byuclafaculty

The Brown budget, based on its budget documents, can be rearranged to break down the problem into manageable pieces. I cannot disentangle “revenue and transfers” – a mischievous term because of the word “transfers” – from what we think of as revenues (taxes, fees, and a few miscellaneous sources). Moreover, the “fund balance” in the general fund is not quite the same as a reserve. (To get the reserve, subtract $770 million from every entry below labeled “fund balance” on the tables.) But the breakdown below will help. (Apologies for odd formatting that the blog program creates.) Highlights First, Brown…

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Countdown to the State Budget and More Speculation on the Forthcoming Brown Plan

Byuclafaculty

In the final countdown to Governor Brown’s budget message at 11 AM today, Dan Weintraub – longtime columnist for the Sacramento Bee and now with healthcal.org – suggests that there could be a variation on the Budget from Hell strategy we have noted in earlier posts. Under that strategy, Brown presents a Budget from Hell which is all cuts and no added revenue. He then puts on the ballot by June, tax extensions of the Feb. 2009 temporary tax increases. (See the earlier posts for more on possible roadblocks and work-arounds to getting such a proposition on the ballot.) The…

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Drip Drop: More Leaks on State Budget Indicate UC is Targeted

Byuclafaculty

As noted in prior posts, governors typically leak out the outlines of their budget strategies in advance of the official unveiling. The official unveiling – by constitutional mandate – is Monday, Jan. 10. The leaked item below from the Sacramento Bee today indicates explicitly that UC will not be spared: Anatomy of Brown’s budget plan (excerpt) Jan. 09, 2011 The budget Jerry Brown will propose Monday includes deep program cuts, a June election to extend tax increases and a broad reordering of state and local government to close a deficit estimated at $25 billion to $28 billion, according to sources…

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Buried Lede: A way around the 2/3 barrier?

Byuclafaculty

From Wikipedia: Verb: to bury the lede: (idiomatic, US, journalism) To begin a story with details of secondary importance to the reader while postponing more essential points or facts. As prior posts have noted, thanks to the voter last November, a state budget – but not a tax or fee increase – can be passed by a simple majority of the legislature. The strategy for Brown appears to be to present a no-tax Budget from Hell, pass it, and then put a proposition on the ballot by June to extend the tax increases of Feb. 2009 that are due to…

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Will Controller’s Report Undermine Brown Budget Strategy?

Byuclafaculty

Gov. Brown will release his budget on Monday. Meanwhile, the state controller has issued figures on the state’s cash receipts and expenditures through December, i.e., half way through the fiscal year. The figures show revenues up almost a billion dollars relative to projections made when the budget was signed (late). You can find the figures and analyses at : http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-ARD/CASH/fy1011dec.pdf http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-EO/01-11summary.pdf There will be a temptation to say the fiscal problem is over or is getting better or will take care of itself. If so, the strategy of presenting a Budget from Hell and then putting tax extensions on the…

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Jerry Brown’s World May Collide With Legislative GOP World on State Budget

Byuclafaculty

As a result of last November’s election, only a simple majority is needed to pass a state budget. However, a 2/3 vote is required to raise taxes or fees. Legislative Democrats have a majority but not a 2/3 supermajority. Gov. Brown’s plan is apparently to propose a budget constrained by current revenue – which would feature major cuts – and then put a measure on the ballot that would extend temporary tax increases the legislature adopted in Feb. 2009 that will soon expire. To put a measure on the ballot, however, he needs a 2/3 vote – which means some…