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Defined-benefit pension plans such as CalPERS and UCRP have to forecast what their earnings on their assets will be over extended periods of time.  A lower forecast will produce a higher estimate of their unfunded liability.  In turn, a higher estimate of the unfunded liability will likely trigger higher employer and/or employee contributions to the plan. It is important to note, however, that changing the forecast does not change the future in the sense that the earnings rate will be what it turns out to be.  If the forecast of the earnings rate over time seems to be too low…

Governor Brown has an initiative in circulation that would impose temporary taxes on the upper brackets of the income tax but also involves the more generally-paid sales tax.  As readers of this blog will know, his January budget plan assumes that voters will approve the initiative in November.  If it is not approved, his budget would impose large trigger cuts in spending that are focused on K-12 schools.  So the budget (which must be enacted by the legislature) and the initiative (which must be enacted by voters) are intertwined. The governor’s tax plan was designed in accordance with public opinion…