More Prop 30 Election Post Mortem
There has been much discussion as to whether it was the youth vote that ultimately passed Prop 30, the governor’s tax initiative. Prop 30 had done marginally in the pre-election polls and appeared to be slipping. Yet it ultimately passed with 54% of the vote. So did this result stem from a surge in youth voters? It appears that the answer is yes and no. The Field Poll now reports that it underestimated the youth vote when it made its calculation of likely voters. Pollsters routinely adjust their samples to try and get at who will actually show up on…
