Budget Strategy Risks for Jerry Brown (and Therefore for UC)

The blog Calbuzz.com pointed me to two items, both related to the state budget. One is the cartoon on the right, which suggests the political challenge for incoming-Governor Brown. [If you can’t make out the captions, go http://www.calbuzz.com/2010/12/swap-meet-jerry-and-santa-meet-landslide-harris/ and scroll down until you see the cartoon.] The other is an article that appeared last week pointing to another aspect of the challenge.

The two budget-related meetings Brown has had (see earlier posts) – plus statements during the election campaign – suggest that his strategy is to get the legislature to pass a budget with no tax increases that would have very drastic cuts. Note that thanks to a proposition passed by voters last November, only a simple majority in the legislature is needed to pass a budget. (However, taxes cannot be raised without a 2/3 vote or a ballot proposition.) The idea would be to give voters a picture of Hell and then pose to them tax increases or extensions in a special election in June 2011.

There are some risks in this strategy, if that is what is planned. One is that the voters might accept Hell and reject whatever tax proposition is put before them. The other is that the clock is ticking on putting a tax proposition on the ballot by June. The latter problem is discussed in the excerpt below:

Only 69 sunsets in Brown’s ‘first 100 days’ (excerpt)

Timm Herdt, Dec. 14, 2010, Ventura County Star

Although Gov.-elect Jerry Brown won’t be sworn in for another three weeks, the clock has already started ticking on his first 100 days. The reason: If Brown is to orchestrate any meaningful agreement to close a $28 billion state budget shortfall without damaging the economy and also cutting education and other services below a level most Californians could tolerate, he will have to put a revenue-raising alternative before voters in a special election in June.

…Given the timetable, the only way to make that happen is with a two-thirds vote of the Legislature. The door has long since closed on the possibility of qualifying a ballot initiative in time for a vote in June; as a practical matter, an initiative effort must be launched at least a year in advance of an election. The Elections Code specifies that a governor may call a special statewide election, but must do so at least 148 days prior to the election. Backing up from the first Tuesday in June, that would put the deadline at Jan. 10, or one week after Brown takes office. Of course, since legislators make the laws, they can also change the laws…

They did that as recently as 2009… In that case, working under a very tight timetable, lawmakers and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger called for an election to be conducted 91 days later… (T)hat would put Brown’s effective deadline at March 8 — just 69 days into his term.

…Legally, Brown could call for an election in June almost immediately after taking office. That’s because there are two ballot initiatives — one that would change the state’s term-limits law and another to raise the cigarette tax to fund cancer research — already qualified for the next statewide ballot.

…If no bipartisan agreement on tax- and budget-related issues could be reached in time, Brown would be a laughingstock for having committed the state to a costly special election to vote only on term-limit reform and funds for cancer research. On the other hand, since most lawmakers would like to see the term-limit change enacted, it might motivate them to reach an agreement…

Full article at http://www.vcstar.com/news/2010/dec/14/only-69-sunsets-in-browns-first-100-days/