LAO

| | | |

Unpreparedness: Report by the LAO

Byuclafaculty

The Legislative Analyst’s Office has release a PowerPoint presentation entitled “Are Entering Freshmen Prepared For College-Level Work?” On UC: Unpreparedness rates of freshmen at UC have declined slightly in recent years. * In 2009, about 25 percent of regularly admitted freshmen arrived unprepared for college-level writing. * The percentage of freshmen needing remediation varies considerably across UC campuses. In fall 2009, the unpreparedness rates ranged from a low of 9 percent at UC Berkeley to a high of 59 percent at UC Merced. On CSU: The CSU currently admits many students who are unprepared for college-level writing and math. Of…

|

LAO Suggests Higher Ed Affordability Issue Needs to Refocus Away from Annual Tuition Sticker Price

Byuclafaculty

In testimony before the Assembly Higher Ed committee, LAO spokesperson Judy Heiman presented an overview of financial aid and affordability in California higher ed. The presentation was low key, reviewing various programs such as Cal Grants. With regard to tuition, she suggested that the legislature has been overly focused on the sticker price of annual tuition. One of the bullet points on her charts reads: Shifting policy focus away from “How can we minimize the price students pay, no matter the cost to the state?” and toward “How can we make a quality postsecondary education affordable?” Another suggestion involves varying…

| |

Mind the Gap! The Gap Between the LAO Forecast for Revenue in Budget Outyears and the Governor’s

Byuclafaculty

The Legislative Analyst has posted a forecast for the three major taxes that feed the state budget that is more pessimistic than the governor’s forecast. However, the gap mainly occurs in the outyears, i.e., years beyond the current budget proposal for 2011-12. The forecasts include the governor’s proposed tax extensions which would have to be approved by voters. However, the difference between the two forecasts (LAO vs. governor) is based on underlying assumptions about state economic performance. So presumably, a similar gap would exist regardless of what future tax rates are assumed. The chart below summarizes the gap: LAO includes…

| | | |

LAO Describes Slash and Burn Budget if Voters Do Not Approve Tax Extensions

Byuclafaculty

As prior posts have noted, Gov. Brown at one point seemed poised to present a budget from Hell that would assume no tax extensions. He would then offer the tax extensions as salvation. However, that strategy was not followed and the budget actually proposed assumes voters enact the tax extensions. However, the Legislative Analyst has – at the request of some legislators – has in fact indicated what a budget from Hell might look like. Below is an item excerpted from Capital Alert that describes the finding and notes the higher ed implications: Legislative analyst identifies massive cuts if taxes…

| | | |

LAO’s Position is that State Pension Contributions to UC are Voluntary & Should Come With Conditions

Byuclafaculty

The Legislative Analyst’s Office has released a video of about 15 minutes on public pensions. Most of the discussion deals with CalPERS, CalSTRS, and other systems. There are occasional references to UC at various points in the video. However, at the end it is stated that the state at some point should voluntarily contribute to UC but make that contribution conditional on the UC pension being more or less the same as other state systems. Put another way, the LAO’s position is that the state has no legal obligation to contribute at any point. Moreover, the video describes a future…

| | |

Budget from Hell Coming Back

Byuclafaculty

Before Gov. Brown delivered his budget proposal in early January, it was speculated that he would follow a “Budget from Hell” strategy. Under that approach, he would have presented a budget on the assumption that no tax extensions were approved. Having seen Hell, voters would (presumably) gratefully vote for the tax extensions as the path out of Hell. In the end, however, he did not follow that approach. Instead, his budget was premised on the tax extensions being approved. When asked, he said that he did not believe in scare tactics – or at least he did not think scare…

| |

LAO Continues to Support UC Budget Cut Including Cut in Current Year

Byuclafaculty

The Legislative Analyst, in a slide presentation to the legislature, continues to argue that the governor’s cuts are reasonable, given the magnitude of the state budget crisis, and that the cut should be partially in the current year rather than all next year. Slide #7 of the presentation states: LAO assessment: proposed General Fund savings are reasonable. * Given the magnitude of the state’s budget shortfall and the universities’ current-year augmentations, we believe the magnitude of the proposed cuts is reasonable. * However, we recommend achieving some of the General Fund savings by reducing the universities’ current-year augmentations. The full…

| | | |

The Ying and Yang of the UC Pension: Brown vs. LAO?

Byuclafaculty

Two views on the UC budget (cut) and the UC pension. Jerry Brown’s flack says state won’t pay (sort of). In contrast, the LAO has no objection to the state paying in the abstract (reminder: Thanks to the UCLA Faculty Assn.!!!), but seems to want unspecified assurances. From California’s Capitol: UC Faces a Budget Hole of Not $500 Million But $700 Million Jan. 25, 2011 The University of California faces a more than $200 million deeper reduction than the $500 million proposed in Gov. Jerry Brown’s budget – in part because the state refuses to make a contribution to the…

| |

LAO to UC: You Were Prudent So We Can’t Wait. Let’s Cut You Now Rather Than Later

Byuclafaculty

Bizarre! The LAO had previously said that instead of cutting UC (and CSU) next year, we should cut now – although we are more than half way through the fiscal year – spreading the cuts equally among the two years. I am reproducing a new report by LAO that makes the argument that UC and CSU were prudent and therefore taking away money this year won’t hurt as much. The relevant portions are in LARGE italics below. I reproduce the entire report. Scroll to the bottom for a link to a pdf version. January 24, 2011 The 2011–12 Budget: Achieving…