CalPERS sticks to assumed rate of return above UC’s

A prior post noted that CalPERS might lower its assumed rate of return on investment to 7.5%, the same as UCRP. What CalPERS might have done would have had no direct effect on UC, but it would have deprived us of being the more conservative. Now that won’t happen, according to the press release below:

CalPERS Discount Rate Unchanged

Press Release

March 15, 2011

External Affairs Branch
Patricia K. Macht, Director
Brad Pacheco, Chief, Office of Public Affairs
Contact: Edward Fong, Information Officer

CalPERS Discount Rate Unchanged

Assumed Investment Return Rate to Stay at 7.75 Percent

SACRAMENTO, CA – A key committee of the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) Board of Administration today voted to keep the Pension Fund’s assumed annual rate of investment return, also known as the discount rate, at the current 7.75 percent. The recommendation by the Benefits and Program Administration Committee goes to the pension fund’s full Board tomorrow.

The discount rate represents what a pension fund believes it can realistically earn from its investments on an annual basis when averaged over the course of 20 years or more. In any given year, investment returns are likely to be higher or lower than the long-term assumed rate.

Over the past 20 years, including the two recent recession years, CalPERS has earned an average annual 7.9 percent rate of return before deducting administrative and investment expenses. For the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2010, CalPERS earned a 13.3 percent return.

“According to our actuaries, maintaining our discount rate at its current level is prudent and reasonable,” said Rob Feckner, CalPERS Board President and Vice Chair of the Board’s Benefits and Program Administration Committee. “Given the current economic environment, we believe keeping our discount rate unchanged is in the best interest of our members, employers, and taxpayers.”

CalPERS Chief Actuary Alan Milligan recommended that the Pension Fund adopt a lower discount rate at 7.50 percent, but indicated to the Committee that keeping the rate unchanged was prudent.

“As pension fund administrators, we want to make sure CalPERS remains financially sound over the long term,” said CalPERS Chief Actuary Alan Milligan. “The discount rate adopted is reasonable and achievable, and appropriate for funding the promised benefits.”

The committee made its decision following a comprehensive review and adjustment of the Pension Fund’s asset allocation and a detailed actuarial analysis. In December 2010, the Board adopted an asset allocation mix that slightly decreased the allocation for traditional bonds and shifted the funds to inflation-protected bonds and commodities to reduce volatility risk.

The highly diversified CalPERS investment portfolio has an allocation target of 49 percent publicly traded stock, 16 percent bonds, 14 percent private equity, 13 percent real assets – real estate, infrastructure, and forestland – and the remaining 8 percent in smaller allocations in asset classes designed to minimize volatility and liquidity risk.

As a part of its analysis, CalPERS staff, using the revised asset allocation, generated 10,000 investment performance scenarios covering the next 60 years. The analysis concluded that expected returns will average 7.38 percent in the first 10 years and 8.50 percent in years 11 and beyond, which resulted in a 7.95 percent average annual return over 20 years or more.

Based on the historical performance of the different asset classes and sophisticated computer analysis, the updated asset allocation is expected to produce an average annual return of 7.95 percent over the next 20 years or more, with a 50-50 chance that returns will be either higher or lower. With historical administrative expenses of 0.15 percent, the expected net return rate is 7.80 percent.

CalPERS reviews its asset allocation and assumed rate of return, and makes any necessary adjustments, every two to three years. CalPERS last adjusted its discount rate in 2004, when it was lowered from 8.25 percent to 7.75 percent.

CalPERS is the largest public pension fund in the U.S. with assets of nearly $228 billion. The retirement system administers pension benefits for more than 1.6 million current and retired California public employees and their families on behalf of the State of California and 3,000 local public agencies and school districts. It also administers health benefits for 1.3 million enrollees. More information about CalPERS is available at www.calpers.ca.gov.

Here’s is what the CalPERS board had to say:

CalPERS reported to be planning to cut its assumed investment return to seven and half

Pension funds, such as UC’s, use an assumed rate of return to estimate future earnings and calculate their unfunded liability. In the past, UC has had the most conservative rate of 7.5% as compared with CalPERS and CalSTRS.

It was useful for UC to be able to note that it was more conservative than the others. Now it is reported that CalPERS will cut its assumed rate to the same level as UC, i.e., CalPERS will assume that for each dollar in the fund, it can earn seven and a half cents.

Although there is no direct effect on UC of whatever adjustment CalPERS makes, we do lose the most conservative label.

For details, see http://www.sacbee.com/2011/03/10/3463392/calpers-expected-to-cut-forecast.html

Of course, seven and a half cents used to mean more than it does now:
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w4mVycaC_o]

UPDATE: State Treasurer Lockyer criticized the Little Hoover Commission report on CalPERS. See http://www.scribd.com/doc/50566430/LHC-Pension-Report-Comments-03-11-11

Gov. Brown Removes Controversial “Stanford Study” Author From CalSTRS Board

Readers of this blog will know of the so-called “Stanford Study” which was designed to produce the largest possible estimate of the unfunded liability of the three major state pension funds: CalPERS, CalSTRS, and UCRS.

Money & Company blog, LA Times

Governor pulls two teachers pension fund appointees (excerpt)

February 22, 2011

Gov. Jerry Brown has pulled back two controversial, last-minute appointments made by then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to a state teachers pension board.

On Dec. 31, Republican Schwarzenegger named Steven Kram, 54, of Los Angeles and Cameron Percy, 26, to the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, a $150-billion pension system.
Kram is president and chief executive of Content Partners, a Los Angeles firm that buys films in the secondary market from other investors. Content Partners’ co-chairman, Paul Wachter, is Schwarzenegger’s financial advisor.

Percy, a recent graduate student at Stanford University’s Department of Economics and Public Policy Program, helped write a controversial study commissioned by Schwarzenegger’s office. The research estimated that the state’s three biggest public pension funds were $400 million short of the amounts needed to meet future obligations to retirees…

Gov. Brown’s office declined to say why he pulled Kram and Percy. “These appointees served at the pleasure of the governor, and their services were no longer required,” spokesman Evan Westrup said…

— Marc Lifsher

Full article at http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/02/governor-pulls-two-teachers-pension-appointees.html

Although the governor did not explain his action, he left this video:
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6qxMP3deU8&w=480&h=390]

Observations and Worries Over at CalPERS

The excerpt below from calpensions.com deals mainly with a state contribution cut to CalPERS, ostensibly due to increased employee contributions. Some things to note:

1) the state contribution rate to the plan is already roughly at our “normal cost.”

2) CalPERS may come down to UC’s assumed 7.5% rate of expected earnings – or possibly lower. Lower would put pressure on UC to do the same.

3) CalPERS is concerned about federal legislative proposals in the new Congress regarding public pension plan discount rates used for estimating unfunded liabilities.

CalPERS state rate hike cut by $200 million (except)

Ed Mendel, calpensions.com, 12-16-10

The state payment to CalPERS for this fiscal year was cut by $200 million yesterday, reflecting a savings for the deficit-ridden state from agreements by state workers to pay more toward their pensions. The CalPERS board approved the lower rate after unions representing two-thirds of the state workforce agreed to new contracts boosting worker contributions an additional 2 to 5 percent of pay, allowing a similar reduction in the state payment. CalPERS expected the original rate set for the fiscal year beginning last July to boost the annual state payment from $3.3 billion to $3.9 billion. So the $600 million increase would be cut by $200 million…

The current earnings forecast, an average of 7.75 percent a year, may be lowered in February or March to 7.5 percent or possibly 7.25 percent, if CalPERS adds a cushion of “conservatism” used in the past.

…One of the charts given to the board shows a blended state contribution rate of about 17 percent of pay, based on a June 2009 valuation of the fund, increasing to around 25 percent of pay in 10 years.

…Under the new contracts, the state rate for most workers is 17.5 percent of pay, down from 19.9 percent in the first half of the fiscal year. The contribution for most workers increased from 5 to 8 percent of pay.

…CalPERS board member Tony Oliveira, a Kings County supervisor, estimated last month that the investment losses and lowering the earnings forecast would boost his county’s CalPERS rate 55 percent over the next three years…

Noting that his term expires next month, Oliveira gave the board some parting advice. He said the greatest risk facing CalPERS during the next three years is federal intervention. Oliveira pointed to federal legislation introduced this month by three Republican congressmen requiring state and local governments to report their pension debt to the U.S. Treasury using an earnings forecast based on “risk free” bonds, rather than a stock-based portfolio.

U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Tulare, and others contend that public pension funds use unrealistic earning assumptions to hide massive debt. Under his legislation, governments that failed to make a bond-based debt report could not issue tax-exempt bonds.

…The CalPERS federal lobbyist, Tom Lussier, told the board yesterday that groups are lining up on both sides for a battle over the legislation by Nunes and others. He said he wanted to be “measured” and not lapse into overstatement. “But there clearly is a school of thought,” said Lussier, “that one of the goals of the new house leadership is to create an environment where state and local governments can in fact file for bankruptcy and can, in effect, use that to undo everything from pension commitments to health care benefits to collective bargaining agreements.”

Full article at http://calpensions.com/2010/12/16/calpers-state-rate-hike-cut-by-200-million/

Too much worry? We’ll leave you with a more encouraging & inspirational note from Elvis:

Optimistic CalSTRS Board Lowers Its Assumed Rate of Return But Not All the Way Down to Our 7.5%

Since CalSTRS’ new assumption is still above ours, we can claim to be more conservative in our pension funding planning. See below:

CalSTRS lowers forecast on future investment returns (excerpt)

Dec. 3, 2010, Dale Kasler, Sacramento Bee

After agonizing for months, CalSTRS made a decision Thursday that seems subtle but has enormous financial implications. The teachers’ pension fund agreed to lower its long-term forecast of future annual investment returns by a quarter of a percentage point…

On an 8-3 vote, the board of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System agreed to cut the investment return forecast to 7.75 percent a year.

As significant as the board’s vote was, it was a partial measure. CalSTRS’ investment staff and outside consultants urged the board to lower the forecast by a half point, to 7.5 percent, in light of the long-term investment outlook.

…Pension funds in several other states are also lowering their forecasts. The board of CalPERS, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, expects to vote in February on whether to change its forecast, which is 7.75 percent.

…Board members were reluctant to make any reduction, knowing it could weaken CalSTRS’ standing in the Legislature and put pressure on teachers. At the board meeting, representatives of three teachers’ groups urged the board to move cautiously…

Full article at http://www.sacbee.com/2010/12/03/v-print/3229533/calstrs-lowers-forecast-on-future.html

CalPERS & CalSTRS Profited from Fed’s TALF Program; UCRS Did Not Participate

State pension funds reaped rewards from Fed loan program (excerpt)

Dec. 3, 2010, Dale Kasler, Sacramento Bee

CalPERS was among the big winners in an obscure Federal Reserve loan program aimed at rescuing the nation’s troubled credit markets last year.

The state’s other big pension fund, CalSTRS, also participated in the program, but to a much smaller degree, according to records released this week by the Federal Reserve. …(T)hey and other big investors took advantage of a $70 billion Federal Reserve loan program designed to pump money into the consumer and business lending markets.

CalPERS, in fact, was among the most enthusiastic participants. With $5.14 billion borrowed from the Fed, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System invested in a portfolio of high-performing credit card loans. CalPERS put in $350 million of its own money and earned a $175 million profit, a return of around 50 percent, said Curtis Ishii, a senior investment officer at the pension fund. CalPERS has repaid the Fed loan.

…Banks and other lenders often bundle their loans into securities and sell them to investors, providing the banks with cash to make new loans. But that market all but dried up in 2009.

That’s when the Fed stepped in with a program called TALF, or Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which made low-interest loans to pension funds, hedge funds and other institutions willing to invest in these securities.

With money borrowed from the Fed, CalPERS and CalSTRS purchased securities backed by all manner of loans. CalPERS used its money to invest in credit card loans issued by Chase and Citibank.

CalSTRS, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, borrowed $225 million from the Fed and invested in commercial mortgages and student loans. “I’m told the return was very good,” said CalSTRS spokesman Ricardo Duran…

Full article at http://www.sacbee.com/2010/12/03/3229529/state-pension-funds-reaped-rewards.html#mi_rss–E-Business

=========

Note: The list of entities that took advantage of this Fed program can be found at:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/reform_talf.htm

Click on the Excel sheet available on that page. If you use the “find” option in Excel, you can locate the CalPERS and CalSTRS loans by searching under “Calif”. There are multiple transactions involving these two pension funds. I could not find any that involved UCRS. Whether UCRS was eligible and – if it was – why it chose not to participate, I do not know.

Seems like CalPERS & CalSTRS got some friendly help:

CalSTRS can apparently wait to cut its estimated investment return to UC level


From the Sacramento Bee:

The CalSTRS board Friday postponed a crucial decision on reducing its investment-return forecast because two of its members were absent. Jack Ehnes, chief executive of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, said the board wanted every one of its 12 members present for the decision. The vote is now set for Dec. 2.

CalSTRS’ staff has recommended that the forecast of annual returns be cut by half a percentage point, to 7.5 percent…

Note that if CalSTRS and CalPERS eventually go to our 7.5%, we can no longer claim to be more conservative than the two big state funds.

Full article at http://www.sacbee.com/2010/11/06/3163756/calstrs-delays-vote-on-returns.html#mi_rss=Business

We can wait:
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtGtK7d_QjE&fs=1&hl=en_US]

Ongoing CalPERS Scandals Make It Tougher for UC

UC’s pension plan has nothing to do with CalPERS. But CalPERS has had a series of scandals involving conflict of interest, bribery, and bad investments that tend to tar all public pensions in California including ours. CalPERS’ ongoing problems will complicate UC’s efforts to resolve its own pension unfunded liability. Continued unraveling of CalPERS scandals increases the chances that UC will be dragged into some statewide reform for all public pensions. The latest CalPERS scandal is reported today:

CalPERS investment officer linked to bribery scandal resigns

Thursday, Aug. 26, 2010, Sacramento Bee (Excerpt)

A senior CalPERS investment officer resigned today after being linked to the pension fund’s bribery scandal, The Bee has learned.

Leon Shahinian has been on paid administrative leave since May, when his name surfaced in Attorney General Jerry Brown’s lawsuit against former CalPERS board member Alfred Villalobos and former Chief Executive Fred Buenrostro. Although Shahinian isn’t a defendant, the lawsuit said Villalobos bribed Shahinian with an all-expenses-paid junket to New York in 2007.

Weeks later, without disclosing the trip, Shahinian persuaded CalPERS to invest $600 million with one of Villalobos’ clients, Apollo Global Management. The deal generated a $13 million commission for Villalobos.

Shahinian’s resignation was confirmed by Sacramento lawyer Malcolm Segal, who represented Shahinian when he testified last month in connection with Villalobos’ bankruptcy case.

The full article is at http://www.sacbee.com/2010/08/26/2985696/calpers-investment-officer-linked.html

UPDATE: More scandal at http://www.sacbee.com/2010/08/31/2994102/former-calpers-board-member-refuses.html

Governor’s Pension Symposium of July 8


Governor Schwarzenegger ran a public pension symposium on July 8. It was essentially a panel of academics, legislators and former legislators (including former assembly speaker Willie Brown), local officials, past CalPERS members, and academics. You can see a video of the roughly 1-hour symposium by going to the governor’s website: www.gov.ca.gov and clicking on “multimedia.”

The symposium concentrated on CalPERS and, to a lesser extent, CalSTRS. UCRS was mentioned in passing at roughly minute 39, but was not explicitly discussed. In particular, the important $2-for-$1 issue that separates UCRS from other public pensions in California was not discussed. (Approximately $2 out of $3 of any employer contributions to UCRS would come from non-state sources.) On the other hand, at roughly minute 44, the Regents were held out as a better model for running a pension system than the CalPERS model which has elected employee representatives. The latter was depicted as a conflict of interest.

The so-called “Stanford Study,” was periodically mentioned but most of the data shown came from a similar study. The academic rational presented for using a low discount rate (which enlarges the measured unfunded liability) was that since the pension promise is ironclad, the discount rate should be a riskless measure.

Slides shown at the event are at:

http://www.gov.ca.gov/pdf/gov/pension_reform2010.pdf

Below is the text of the governor’s announcement of the event:

Governor Schwarzenegger Hosts Pension Roundtable

Gathers Academics, Elected Officials, Opinion Leaders to Discuss Comprehensive Pension Reform

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today hosted a pension reform roundtable with academics, elected officials, students and opinion leaders to discuss California’s pension crisis and the need for comprehensive reform. The Governor has been pushing for pension reform since coming into office, and recent studies by Stanford and the University of Chicago and Northwestern have reinforced the immediacy with which the legislature must act to reign in rising costs. The Governor has promised not to sign a budget that does not include pension reform and is calling for lower benefits for new employees, increased employee contributions, truthful financial disclosure and honest funding.

“Our pension crisis is a real problem that gets worse every day. California has $500 billion in unfunded pension debt that, without reform, will continue to grow and crowd out funding for programs and services Californians hold dear such as higher education, parks and environmental protection,” said Governor Schwarzenegger. “This roundtable is designed to expose the depths of the pension problem and to alert Californians of the even worse consequences should their leaders continue to ignore it. The state has a duty to ensure taxpayer dollars go to things the taxpayers care about, and that’s why I will not sign a budget that does not include pension reform.”

California has long provided generous pension benefits to its employees, but in 1999, the legislature and Governor Gray Davis significantly and retroactively boosted benefits after being assured by the California Public Employee’s Retirement System (CalPERS) that doing so would not cost “a dime of additional taxpayer money.” But since the passage of that legislation, taxpayer spending on pension benefits has skyrocketed by more than 2000 percent (nearly 3000 percent in the General Fund) while spending on University of California and California State University, parks and recreation and environmental protection has either declined or failed to keep up with inflation. This year, taxpayers are being required to divert nearly $3.8 billion from state programs and services to pay for retiree benefits provided by CalPERS, five times more than CalPERS projected in 1999. Over the past ten years, CalPERS’s projections were off by $20 billion, and now CalPERS predicts state costs will total $270 billion over the next thirty years and still leave pensions only 75 percent funded. Worse, that projection assumes the stock market will double every ten years – if not, the costs will be higher.

The Governor’s Administration has recently negotiated contract agreements with six state employee unions that include elements of pension reform that will help control costs going forward and ensure support for legislation requiring full disclosure from state pension funds and honest funding of pension promises as and when they are made. The six unions – the California Association of Highway Patrolmen, California Department of Forestry Firefighters, California Association of Psychiatric Technicians, American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the Union of American Physicians and Dentists and the International Union of Operating Engineers – represent 40,000 of the state’s public employees. If ratified, these agreements will save the state nearly $1.4 billion in FY 2010-11, and, if similar agreements are reached with the state’s six other employee unions, state savings in FY 2010-11 would total $2.2 billion, with $1.2 billion from the General Fund.

The Governor’s Administration will continue to negotiate in good faith with all of the employee unions on all aspects of the pension reform measures. However, Governor Schwarzenegger will not sign a budget without four elements of pension reform that must be done legislatively, separate and apart from any memorandums of understanding. They include:
1. Rolling back the expansion of pension benefits adopted in 1999 as Senate Bill 400 (Chapter 555, Statutes of 1999).
2. Requiring a permanent five percentage-point increase in employee pre-tax contribution toward retirement benefits.
3. Calculating the retirement rate based on the highest three years of wages during employment instead of the highest single year.
4. Requiring full disclosure by state pension funds and honest funding of pension promises as and when those promises are made.

There were questions from reporters at the end of the symposium. Because the governor seemed to link his attempt to impose the minimum wage on state workers to push for a budget agreement and because he said he would not sign a budget without pension reform, he was questioned on that point. He said that with regard to pensions, he wanted a rollback of the pension increases in CalPERS that were made in 1999, presumably prospectively. Because his minimum wage dispute with the state controller revolves around the capability of state payroll computers to pay the minimum wage and then compensate workers for lost wages subsequently, the governor was asked if he believed in that capability. He avoided answering and tied the issue back to pensions.