As prior posts on this blog have noted, Proposition 30, the governor’s tax initiative endorsed by the Regents, is polling marginally ahead. But it does not have a comfortable lead and the campaign is really just starting. So will it lose its marginal lead, thus causing trigger cuts to UC? Ethan Rarick, California Fellow at the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC-Berkeley, does some analysis of past initiatives and concludes that the answer is – TA TA! – maybe yes/ maybe no. Non-tax initiatives at this point in the campaign with poll numbers in the range of Prop 30’s do seem to pass. But tax initiatives tend to lose more support than others as Election Day nears. Certainly, Proposition 30 is no sure thing.
(You probably knew that.)
Anyway, you can find his analysis at: http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/2012/09/will-prop-30-pass-heres-some-historical-perspective/
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